· Non-national segment buoyed the TIV. Total Industry Volume (TIV) in April recorded at 41,135 units (-18.5% YoY, -6.9% MoM) led by stronger sales by the non-national marques, particularly Honda (+36.8% YoY) and Naza (+22.7% YoY). Additionally worth to take note is the Nissan sales, which record consistent MoM sale increase since Dec 2008 leading to a market share of 6.1% from 5.6% previously.
· Toyota continues to record decline YoY for 4 months consecutively although market leadership in the non-national segment is maintained at 16.7% market share in April with sales of 6,884 units (-30.2% YoY, -3.4% MoM). Vios is the most popular model, making up 36.8% of the Toyota sales. 3Q 2009 is expected to be interesting for Toyota when the Prius is expected to be launched and more facelifts/variants will be introduced. Separately, the luxury models (BMW, Benz, Volvo) continues to post resilient sales of monthly average of 680 units vis-à-vis 700 units YoY.
· Lower sales by Proton and Perodua in April. Proton and Perodua collectively commands 53.7% of market share, downed from 55.4% MoM. Proton’s sales volume declined by 3.9% MoM despite sales contribution of 480 units by the Exora for the first time. This came in below our expectation; however, we understand that the bookings of Exora as at early-May stood at over 9,000 which could result in Proton gaining more market share in the coming months. Perodua continues to lead the TIV of 29.8% market share, supported by strong sales of the Viva and Myvi. Perodua will launch its new MPV in 4Q09 at price below RM70K.
· Maintain 2009 TIV estimate of 460,000 units. TIV of 159,816 units up to April accounts 34.7% of our estimate. We expect vehicle sales will continue to remain lukewarm as dampened by the prolonging weak consumer sentiment and tighter financing facility. We gathered that the hire purchase rates are currently hovering in the range of 3.6-3.7% for the national cars and 3.25-3.5% upped by 100 basis points previously for the non-national brands. This may shift buyers towards the national cars; however, we expect the impacts would be limited given the non-nationals cars are targeted mainly at customers of mid-to-higher income brackets. Nonetheless, we are maintaining our assumption that average monthly sales of 38K-40K units is deemed positive before any re-rating. Average monthly sales stood at 39,954 units as at April.
· Maintain Neutral. Re-iterate BUY on Tan Chong and HOLD on UMW, MBM and Proton. Higher promotional expenses to drive sales on the back of weaker consumer spending and lower secondary car value may suppress the margins of the auto companies. However, the anticipated less volatile currencies movement (the Yen and USD against Ringgit) moving forward is expected to lend some comfort to the margins by easing lower the costs of CKDs purchases. We expect the gradual kick-off of the Government’s stimulus package to buffer the contraction in GDP growth this year, which we believe is also attributing partially to the continuing resilient sales performance of the Commercial Vehicles segment of average monthly sales of 3,741 units vs. 3,770 units YoY. On another note, a new refined National Auto Policy (NAP) is expected to be unveiled in September with focuses mainly on the consolidation of sales network, development of the automotive parts and components and issues on Approved Permits.
No comments:
Post a Comment