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Wednesday 6 January 2010

US Market:Sentiment May Remain Subdued Due to Uncertainty



The major U.S. index futures little changed on Wednesday, reflecting the indecision of traders. Traders are likely to remain cautious as they look ahead to some key economic reports that can improve the visibility on the economic environment. A private sector employment report released earlier in the day showed a decline in the rate of job losses, which was more or less in line with expectations of economists. The resurgence in the value of the dollar is keeping a lid on commodity prices. Particularly oil is expected to show some volatility amid the release of the EIA’s weekly inventory report. The results of the ISM’s services survey and the minutes of the December FOMC meeting could also influence trading in today’s session.

U.S. stocks ended on a mixed note on Tuesday following a decent run up in the previous session, as traders preferred to stay on sidelines amid caution ahead of a slew of first-tier economic reports to be released over the course of the rest of the week. Additionally, a sharp drop in the pending home sales index also weighed on sentiment. Volume of trading was light, with merely 2.49 billion shares exchanging hands.

The Dow Industrials opened slightly higher, but it immediately dipped below the unchanged line and languished in negative territory for the rest of the session. The 30-stock index closed down 11.94 points or 0.11% at 10,572. After showing a lack of direction for much of the session, moving back and forth across the unchanged line, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite ended higher for the day. While the S&P 500 Index advanced 3.53 points or 0.31% to 1,137, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained merely 0.29 points or 0.01% to 2,309.

Sixteen of the thirty Dow components closed the session lower, with Alcoa (AA), DuPont (DD), IBM (IBM), Pfizer (PFE), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Coca-Cola (KO) leading the slide. On the other hand, Kraft Foods (KFT) rallied close to 5% and JP Morgan Chase advanced about 2%. Bank of America (BAC) and Boeing (BA) both rose over 3%.

Among the sector indexes, the Dow Jones Utilities Average fell 1.03%. However, the NYSE Arca Airline Index surged up 5.21% and the Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 1.01%. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index ended up 2.06% compared to a more modest 1.03% advance by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index rose 1.12%, while the KBW Bank Index rallied 2.24%.

On the economic front, the National Association of Realtors reported that the pending home sales index for November, a leading indicator for existing home sales, declined 16% month-over-month. Economists had expected a more modest decline of 2%. The decline is apparently the pay back phenomena from the first time homebuyers’ credit, which motivated homebuyers to bring forward their purchases to meet the earlier expiry deadline of November 30th. The stimulus measure has since then been extended.

After showing decent gains in the past three months, the Northeast, Midwest and South showed sharp declines. On a year-over-year basis, the index rose 19.3%, although much of the increase was due to easier comparisons. Meanwhile, factory goods orders rose a better than expected 1.1% in November.

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